Private companies and governments have invested a staggering $17 trillion in sustainable technologies over the past decade, yet progress has been uneven, according to Bain & Company’s 4th edition of the Visionary CEO’s Guide to Sustainability. The report finds that sustainability transitions have entered an age of divergence which could intensify over the next decade and identifies the actions businesses can take to navigate this environment.
Investments in sustainability hit a record $2.4 trillion in 2025. However, 90% of investment went to just three sectors – green energy, buildings and mobility – where capital has helped technologies scale and costs fall, in turn attracting further investments. Meanwhile, three stranded sectors – agriculture, manufacturing and materials, and natural capital – which together account for roughly 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, received less than 10% of investment.
Technological progress has been equally uneven. Bain’s Green Technology Performance Index compares actual 2025 deployment with forecasts made ten years ago across 37 sustainable technologies. Only three technologies – solar, batteries, and EVs – have outperformed forecasts, while 29 missed their projections. Those that underperformed did so because one or more of three critical “gates” – technology, behavior, or policy – didn’t open.
“Ten years into the Paris Agreement, the world has made commendable sustainability achievements, but this summer’s record-breaking heat is a reminder that we need to do more,” said Jean-Charles van den Branden, Bain’s global head of Sustainability. “Today’s CEO must recognize this age of divergence for what it is: not a sign of failure, but an opportunity to place the right bets for the future. CEOs will need to understand how to leverage divergence as a source of competitive advantage, converge priorities across the firm to harness AI for its full sustainability benefits and ask the right questions about climate resilience.”
Environmental concern among consumers is rising again – and even sustainability skeptics are adopting sustainable habits
For the first time in three years, environmental concern is on the rise. This year, 85% of the 7,500 consumers across US, UK, Italy, Brazil and Indonesia, surveyed by Bain say they are concerned about environmental sustainability, up from 79% last year. Experience of extreme weather – including heatwaves, floods, and wildfires – remains consumers’ biggest environmental worry. Concern is particularly high among younger consumers and those in fast-growing markets.
Bain’s research also found that consumers are living more sustainably. Adoption of sustainable habits continues to increase year-over-year across all categories. Eighty-three percent of respondents have adopted three or more sustainable lifestyle habits, up from 73% in 2023. Even among consumers who say they do not care about sustainability, nearly half now practice three or more sustainable habits, compared with 35% in 2023. Their primary motivation, however, is often not the environment. This is a consumer version of the “do-say” gap: individuals act sustainably but cite motivations related to economics, health or resilience rather than sustainability. Consumers are willing to pay 18% more for a sustainable product on average, rising to 24% when it also offers a health benefit. More than half also say they shop locally more than they did before, primarily to support local businesses and strengthen security of supply.
Recent extreme weather also underscores the importance of resilience for today’s businesses. Disaster losses are rising 5-7% each year and the gap between total and insured losses remains large. But Bain’s research suggests climate disruption will not affect every company equally. As disruption intensifies, value can shift toward companies that are better prepared through higher market share and stronger revenues.
Bain analyzed nearly 150,000 assets across 12 sectors to demonstrate that all assets have specific moments when resilience can be built in at relatively low incremental cost. The research shows that some industries have many more opportunities than others. For example, solar companies can embed resilience into new builds from the start and have more frequent refurbishment opportunities. By contrast, more established capital-intensive industries like steel and cement see refurbishment opportunities only every 25-35 years, making missed moments potentially decades-long lock-ins.
Three forces of divergence in sustainable AI – executives vs. consumers, shapers vs. laggards, and business leaders vs. sustainability leaders
One of the largest perception gaps Bain uncovered concerns the energy impact of artificial intelligence, with executives overestimating energy use 16-fold and consumers almost 30-fold.
In a Bain survey of 400 senior professionals, executives expect AI to consume around 11% of global energy three years from now, while consumers expect 19%. But Bain’s proprietary climate-economic modeling tool, IntersectSM, forecasts a much smaller share: 0.7%. While their calculations are incorrect, the concern is real and is driving meaningful changes in behavior. Nearly two-thirds of consumers surveyed by Bain report taking concrete action due to their concerns about AI, such as limiting what they share, switching platforms, dropping certain tools or speaking out publicly.
Companies themselves are diverging into distinct camps. Among shapers – companies with the highest AI and sustainability maturity and adoption – 90% see AI as a major opportunity to advance their sustainability goals. Among laggards, that figure has fallen to 41% from 57% last year. Experience appears to be reinforcing this divide. Shapers have actively adopted 86% of the sustainable AI use cases covered in Bain’s survey, enabling them to see tangible results. Companies with fewer successful applications risk losing conviction before they capture the technology’s potential.
There is another divide inside companies. The sustainability executives building the case for sustainable AI and the leaders and general managers making the business decisions needed to scale it are focused on different priorities. When evaluating sustainable AI investments, business leaders (C-suite and general managers) rank financial return first; sustainability professionals rank regulatory compliance and risk management ahead and financial return fourth. The case is being argued in one language and being judged and funded in another.
Taken together, Bain’s findings challenge two narratives: that the sustainability transition is broadly retreating, and that it is advancing uniformly. Instead, investment, technology, corporate action, and consumer behavior are moving at very different speeds. The companies best positioned to create value will be those that understand those differences – scaling proven opportunities, anticipating where technology, policy, or behavior could trigger the next acceleration, and building resilience against disruptions that are already materializing.
Other chapters in the report include “The Energy Transition Runs Through Asia” – how Asia is driving disruption, competition, supply, and investment in the energy transition; and “The New Investment Playbook for Sustainability” – how concentrated ownership creates a decarbonization execution advantage and how acting on climate risk and policy engagement can differentiate sustainability investors.
